45%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi45%
No-Gi45%
Back Control
Top player controls from behind with chest-to-back connection and hooks or equivalent control.
Where does this position usually go next?
- Roadmap
- Volume 1
- Roles
- Top + Bottom
- Formats
- Gi and No-Gi
Understand the position
Understand the position
Top
Is behind Bottom with chest to back, usually with hooks in, looking for a choke.
Bottom
Has an opponent attached to their back and works to protect the neck and turn to face them.
Quick Read
Understand this position in 10 seconds.
Favors Top
67%
Top establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Favors Bottom
20%
Bottom establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Neutral
13%
Neither role establishes a clearly superior next position. The exchange can still move forward.
Largest group: Favors Top (67%). Most common individual transition: Top submits (45%).
What does "favors" mean?
It is not a player's chance of winning the match. It describes which player benefits from the estimated next outcome of this position.
The distribution
Overall Outcome
Outcome distribution for Back Control
Favors Top 67%
Favors Bottom 20%
Neutral 13%
One-step map
Where It Goes Next
Sort by
- From Back Control: Top submits, 45 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Back Control: Top transitions to mount, 8 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Back Control: Bottom escapes to turtle, 8 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Back Control: Bottom escapes to side / top re-pins, 6 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Back Control: Bottom escapes to guard, 16 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Back Control: Bottom reverses to top, 4 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Back Control: Stand-up / reset, 13 percent overall, Neutral.
These are possible next events, not guaranteed paths to another named position. Open a transition below for a plain-language explanation.
Every outcome
Transition Breakdown
Favors Top
8%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi8%
No-Gi7%
8%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi8%
No-Gi8%
6%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi6%
No-Gi5%
Favors Bottom
16%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi18%
No-Gi15%
4%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi3%
No-Gi5%
Neutral
13%
Neutral · Overall estimate
Gi12%
No-Gi15%
Compare the formats
Gi vs No-Gi
Gi45%No-Gi45%
Gi8%No-Gi7%
Gi8%No-Gi8%
Gi6%No-Gi5%
Gi18%No-Gi15%
Gi3%No-Gi5%
Gi12%No-Gi15%
Gi
Collar grips make chokes from the back the single most likely outcome in the entire roadmap.
No-Gi
Escapes and stand-ups are slightly more common without fabric, but the finish rate stays high.
In practice
What This Means on the Mat
For Top
Keep the chest-to-back connection above all. The submission is the most likely outcome by a wide margin.
For Bottom
Protect your neck and clear one hook at a time. Escaping to guard is the most common way out.
Methodology
How to Read These Numbers
These percentages are coaching estimates informed by published research, not measured probabilities from a single dataset.
EstimatedThe Simplex Motus Position Transition Roadmap, Volume 1 supplies the baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values. The overall split groups the baseline outcomes by which role they favor. Published studies provide context for the estimates, not direct measurements of these exact exit percentages.
Gi means grappling with a uniform jacket and pants; No-Gi means grappling without that uniform. “Overall” is the roadmap's baseline estimate, not an average calculated from the two formats.
Limitations
The cited studies provide context, but do not report these exact position-exit rates. Without raw counts or a reproducible calculation for the displayed percentages, these estimates should not be treated as measured frequencies or predictions for a particular match.
Research trail
Evidence & Sources
The original roadmap, Volume 1 (PDF) provides the displayed baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values and assigns the references below to Back Control. Public studies do not track every specific position exit shown here. Where direct measurements are unavailable, the roadmap uses evidence-constrained coaching estimates. No sample size, raw counts, or reproducible calculation for these exact percentages is provided in the document. Treat them as a directional training guide, not observed rates or a prediction for a match.
Continue exploring
Explore the Roadmap
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Back Control
Explore Related Positions
Related positions are useful positions to explore next and are not necessarily direct transitions shown in the roadmap.
Volume 1
Closed Guard Bottom player has both legs locked around the top player's torso, limiting posture and mobility.Side Control Top player pins across the chest from the side with the legs cleared.Half Guard Bottom player traps one of the top player's legs. It sits between guard and a completed pass.Knee on Belly Top player controls from the side with a knee or shin across the torso while staying mobile.Mount Top player sits astride the torso. Mount scores 4 points under IBJJF rules.Turtle Bottom player is on knees and elbows or hands with the back facing the top player.
Volume 2
Open Guard Bottom player controls distance with legs and grips without locking closed guard, including DLR, RDLR, spider, lasso, and single-leg X.Butterfly Guard Bottom player is seated with inside hooks under the top player's thighs, usually with upper-body connection.North-South Top player pins from above the head, chest to chest, facing the bottom player's legs. It is part of the side-control family.Standing / Neutral Both athletes are on their feet. There is no top or bottom yet, so the roles are Scorer, Defender, and Neutral.Front Headlock Controller holds the head, often with an arm, while the defender is bent over or turtled. It sits between standing, turtle, and the back.Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami The legs are connected in a control system such as ashi garami, outside ashi, saddle/411, or 50-50. Top and bottom labels do not apply.