32%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi30%
No-Gi34%
Turtle
Bottom player is on knees and elbows or hands with the back facing the top player.
Where does this position usually go next?
- Roadmap
- Volume 1
- Roles
- Top + Bottom
- Formats
- Gi and No-Gi
Understand the position
Understand the position
Top
Is behind or beside Bottom, looking to take the back or break them down flat.
Bottom
Is on hands and knees protecting the neck, trying to recover guard or stand up.
Quick Read
Understand this position in 10 seconds.
Favors Top
53%
Top establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Favors Bottom
47%
Bottom establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Largest group: Favors Top (53%). Most common individual transition: Top takes the back (32%).
What does "favors" mean?
It is not a player's chance of winning the match. It describes which player benefits from the estimated next outcome of this position.
The distribution
Overall Outcome
Outcome distribution for Turtle
Favors Top 53%
Favors Bottom 47%
One-step map
Where It Goes Next
Sort by
- From Turtle: Top takes the back, 32 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Turtle: Top flattens to side / mount, 11 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Turtle: Top submits from front headlock / choke, 10 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Turtle: Bottom recovers guard, 20 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Turtle: Bottom stands / resets, 15 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Turtle: Bottom reverses to top, 12 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
These are possible next events, not guaranteed paths to another named position. Open a transition below for a plain-language explanation.
Every outcome
Transition Breakdown
Favors Top
11%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi14%
No-Gi8%
10%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi10%
No-Gi10%
Favors Bottom
20%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi22%
No-Gi18%
15%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi12%
No-Gi18%
12%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi12%
No-Gi12%
Compare the formats
Gi vs No-Gi
Gi30%No-Gi34%
Gi14%No-Gi8%
Gi10%No-Gi10%
Gi22%No-Gi18%
Gi12%No-Gi18%
Gi12%No-Gi12%
Gi
Grips help the top player flatten the turtle and control the pace before taking the back.
No-Gi
The position is more explosive: back takes and stand-ups both happen more often.
In practice
What This Means on the Mat
For Top
The back is the prize. Break the base first, then attack before the bottom player moves.
For Bottom
Do not sit still. Guard recovery, standing up, or reversing should happen immediately.
Methodology
How to Read These Numbers
These percentages are coaching estimates informed by published research, not measured probabilities from a single dataset.
EstimatedThe Simplex Motus Position Transition Roadmap, Volume 1 supplies the baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values. The overall split groups the baseline outcomes by which role they favor. Published studies provide context for the estimates, not direct measurements of these exact exit percentages.
Gi means grappling with a uniform jacket and pants; No-Gi means grappling without that uniform. “Overall” is the roadmap's baseline estimate, not an average calculated from the two formats.
Limitations
The cited studies provide context, but do not report these exact position-exit rates. Without raw counts or a reproducible calculation for the displayed percentages, these estimates should not be treated as measured frequencies or predictions for a particular match.
Research trail
Evidence & Sources
The original roadmap, Volume 1 (PDF) provides the displayed baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values and assigns the references below to Turtle. Public studies do not track every specific position exit shown here. Where direct measurements are unavailable, the roadmap uses evidence-constrained coaching estimates. No sample size, raw counts, or reproducible calculation for these exact percentages is provided in the document. Treat them as a directional training guide, not observed rates or a prediction for a match.
Continue exploring
Explore the Roadmap
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Turtle
Explore Related Positions
Related positions are useful positions to explore next and are not necessarily direct transitions shown in the roadmap.
Volume 1
Closed Guard Bottom player has both legs locked around the top player's torso, limiting posture and mobility.Side Control Top player pins across the chest from the side with the legs cleared.Half Guard Bottom player traps one of the top player's legs. It sits between guard and a completed pass.Knee on Belly Top player controls from the side with a knee or shin across the torso while staying mobile.Mount Top player sits astride the torso. Mount scores 4 points under IBJJF rules.Back Control Top player controls from behind with chest-to-back connection and hooks or equivalent control.
Volume 2
Open Guard Bottom player controls distance with legs and grips without locking closed guard, including DLR, RDLR, spider, lasso, and single-leg X.Butterfly Guard Bottom player is seated with inside hooks under the top player's thighs, usually with upper-body connection.North-South Top player pins from above the head, chest to chest, facing the bottom player's legs. It is part of the side-control family.Standing / Neutral Both athletes are on their feet. There is no top or bottom yet, so the roles are Scorer, Defender, and Neutral.Front Headlock Controller holds the head, often with an arm, while the defender is bent over or turtled. It sits between standing, turtle, and the back.Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami The legs are connected in a control system such as ashi garami, outside ashi, saddle/411, or 50-50. Top and bottom labels do not apply.