21%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi22%
No-Gi20%
Butterfly Guard
Bottom player is seated with inside hooks under the top player's thighs, usually with upper-body connection.
Where does this position usually go next?
- Roadmap
- Volume 2
- Roles
- Top + Bottom
- Formats
- Gi and No-Gi
Understand the position
Understand the position
Top
Is in front of Bottom with Bottom's feet hooked inside their thighs, trying to flatten and pass.
Bottom
Sits up with both feet hooked inside Top's thighs, ready to lift and sweep.
Quick Read
Understand this position in 10 seconds.
Favors Top
44%
Top establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Favors Bottom
52%
Bottom establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Neutral
4%
Neither role establishes a clearly superior next position. The exchange can still move forward.
Largest group: Favors Bottom (52%). Most common individual transition: Top flattens into top half guard (21%).
What does "favors" mean?
It is not a player's chance of winning the match. It describes which player benefits from the estimated next outcome of this position.
The distribution
Overall Outcome
Outcome distribution for Butterfly Guard
Favors Top 44%
Favors Bottom 52%
Neutral 4%
One-step map
Where It Goes Next
Sort by
- From Butterfly Guard: Top flattens into top half guard, 21 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Butterfly Guard: Top completes the pass, 15 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Butterfly Guard: Bottom turtles / gives front headlock, 8 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Butterfly Guard: Bottom wrestles up / arm-drag, 13 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Butterfly Guard: Bottom hook sweep, 12 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Butterfly Guard: Bottom recomposes another guard, 12 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Butterfly Guard: Bottom enters leg entanglement, 10 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Butterfly Guard: Bottom submits, 5 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Butterfly Guard: Stand-up / reset, 4 percent overall, Neutral.
These are possible next events, not guaranteed paths to another named position. Open a transition below for a plain-language explanation.
Every outcome
Transition Breakdown
Favors Top
15%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi15%
No-Gi15%
8%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi5%
No-Gi10%
Favors Bottom
13%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi12%
No-Gi15%
12%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi15%
No-Gi8%
12%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi15%
No-Gi10%
10%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi6%
No-Gi14%
5%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi5%
No-Gi5%
Neutral
4%
Neutral · Overall estimate
Gi5%
No-Gi3%
Compare the formats
Gi vs No-Gi
Gi22%No-Gi20%
Gi15%No-Gi15%
Gi5%No-Gi10%
Gi12%No-Gi15%
Gi15%No-Gi8%
Gi15%No-Gi10%
Gi6%No-Gi14%
Gi5%No-Gi5%
Gi5%No-Gi3%
Gi
The roadmap estimates more hook sweeps and guard recomposition in the Gi.
No-Gi
It estimates more leg entries and wrestle-ups in No-Gi, alongside more front-headlock exposure.
In practice
What This Means on the Mat
For Top
Flatten the seated player, clear or pin the hooks, and pass.
For Bottom
Elevate, arm-drag, wrestle up, or enter the legs.
Methodology
How to Read These Numbers
These percentages are coaching estimates informed by published research, not measured probabilities from a single dataset.
EstimatedThe Simplex Motus Position Transition Roadmap, Volume 2 supplies the baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values. The overall split groups the baseline outcomes by which role they favor. Published studies provide context for the estimates, not direct measurements of these exact exit percentages.
Gi means grappling with a uniform jacket and pants; No-Gi means grappling without that uniform. “Overall” is the roadmap's baseline estimate, not an average calculated from the two formats.
Limitations
The cited studies provide context, but do not report these exact position-exit rates. Without raw counts or a reproducible calculation for the displayed percentages, these estimates should not be treated as measured frequencies or predictions for a particular match.
Research trail
Evidence & Sources
The original roadmap, Volume 2 (PDF) provides the displayed baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values and assigns the references below to Butterfly Guard. Public studies do not track every specific position exit shown here. Where direct measurements are unavailable, the roadmap uses evidence-constrained coaching estimates. No sample size, raw counts, or reproducible calculation for these exact percentages is provided in the document. Treat them as a directional training guide, not observed rates or a prediction for a match.
Continue exploring
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Butterfly Guard
Explore Related Positions
Related positions are useful positions to explore next and are not necessarily direct transitions shown in the roadmap.
Volume 1
Closed Guard Bottom player has both legs locked around the top player's torso, limiting posture and mobility.Side Control Top player pins across the chest from the side with the legs cleared.Half Guard Bottom player traps one of the top player's legs. It sits between guard and a completed pass.Knee on Belly Top player controls from the side with a knee or shin across the torso while staying mobile.Mount Top player sits astride the torso. Mount scores 4 points under IBJJF rules.Turtle Bottom player is on knees and elbows or hands with the back facing the top player.Back Control Top player controls from behind with chest-to-back connection and hooks or equivalent control.
Volume 2
Open Guard Bottom player controls distance with legs and grips without locking closed guard, including DLR, RDLR, spider, lasso, and single-leg X.North-South Top player pins from above the head, chest to chest, facing the bottom player's legs. It is part of the side-control family.Standing / Neutral Both athletes are on their feet. There is no top or bottom yet, so the roles are Scorer, Defender, and Neutral.Front Headlock Controller holds the head, often with an arm, while the defender is bent over or turtled. It sits between standing, turtle, and the back.Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami The legs are connected in a control system such as ashi garami, outside ashi, saddle/411, or 50-50. Top and bottom labels do not apply.