Favors Initiator · Overall estimate
Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami
The legs are connected in a control system such as ashi garami, outside ashi, saddle/411, or 50-50. Top and bottom labels do not apply.
Where does this position usually go next?
- Roadmap
- Volume 2
- Roles
- Initiator + Defender
- Formats
- Gi and No-Gi
Understand the position
Understand the position
Initiator
The Initiator has wrapped the Defender's leg with their own legs to attack it.
Defender
The Defender has a leg caught and works to free it and safely return to passing.
Quick Read
Understand this position in 10 seconds.
Favors Initiator
42%
Initiator establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Favors Defender
58%
Defender establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Largest group: Favors Defender (58%). Most common individual transition: Defender clears and passes / ends on top (50%).
What does "favors" mean?
It is not a player's chance of winning the match. It describes which player benefits from the estimated next outcome of this position.
The distribution
Overall Outcome
Outcome distribution for Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami
Favors Initiator 42%
Favors Defender 58%
One-step map
Where It Goes Next
- From Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami: Initiator sweeps / comes up on top, 27 percent overall, Favors Initiator.
- From Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami: Initiator finishes leg lock, 13 percent overall, Favors Initiator.
- From Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami: Initiator takes the back, 2 percent overall, Favors Initiator.
- From Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami: Defender clears and passes / ends on top, 50 percent overall, Favors Defender.
- From Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami: Defender counter leg-locks / submits, 8 percent overall, Favors Defender.
These are possible next events, not guaranteed paths to another named position. Open a transition below for a plain-language explanation.
Every outcome
Transition Breakdown
Favors Initiator
Favors Initiator · Overall estimate
Favors Initiator · Overall estimate
Favors Defender
Favors Defender · Overall estimate
Favors Defender · Overall estimate
Compare the formats
Gi vs No-Gi
Gi
The roadmap estimates more defender passes and fewer leg-lock finishes in the Gi.
No-Gi
It estimates more finishes and counter-attacks in No-Gi, while clearing and passing remains the largest exit.
In practice
What This Means on the Mat
For Initiator
Control the knee line, finish the leg lock, or come up on top.
For Defender
Clear the knee line, disengage, counter-attack, or pass.
Methodology
How to Read These Numbers
These percentages are coaching estimates informed by published research, not measured probabilities from a single dataset.
EstimatedThe Simplex Motus Position Transition Roadmap, Volume 2 supplies the baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values. The overall split groups the baseline outcomes by which role they favor. Published studies provide context for the estimates, not direct measurements of these exact exit percentages.
Gi means grappling with a uniform jacket and pants; No-Gi means grappling without that uniform. “Overall” is the roadmap's baseline estimate, not an average calculated from the two formats.
Limitations
The cited studies provide context, but do not report these exact position-exit rates. Without raw counts or a reproducible calculation for the displayed percentages, these estimates should not be treated as measured frequencies or predictions for a particular match.
Research trail
Evidence & Sources
The original roadmap, Volume 2 (PDF) provides the displayed baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values and assigns the references below to Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami. Public studies do not track every specific position exit shown here. Where direct measurements are unavailable, the roadmap uses evidence-constrained coaching estimates. No sample size, raw counts, or reproducible calculation for these exact percentages is provided in the document. Treat them as a directional training guide, not observed rates or a prediction for a match.
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Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami
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