25%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi25%
No-Gi24%
Half Guard
Bottom player traps one of the top player's legs. It sits between guard and a completed pass.
Where does this position usually go next?
- Roadmap
- Volume 1
- Roles
- Top + Bottom
- Formats
- Gi and No-Gi
Understand the position
Understand the position
Top
Has one leg trapped between Bottom's legs and works to free it and pass.
Bottom
Is underneath and traps one of Top's legs, working to sweep, recover guard, or take the back.
Quick Read
Understand this position in 10 seconds.
Favors Top
41%
Top establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Favors Bottom
54%
Bottom establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Neutral
5%
Neither role establishes a clearly superior next position. The exchange can still move forward.
Largest group: Favors Bottom (54%). Most common individual transition: Top completes the pass (25%).
What does "favors" mean?
It is not a player's chance of winning the match. It describes which player benefits from the estimated next outcome of this position.
The distribution
Overall Outcome
Outcome distribution for Half Guard
Favors Top 41%
Favors Bottom 54%
Neutral 5%
One-step map
Where It Goes Next
Sort by
- From Half Guard: Top completes the pass, 25 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Half Guard: Bottom turtles to stop the pass, 9 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Half Guard: Top passes directly to mount, 7 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Half Guard: Bottom recovers guard, 24 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Half Guard: Bottom sweeps / wrestles up, 18 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Half Guard: Bottom enters leg entanglement, 7 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Half Guard: Bottom takes the back, 5 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Half Guard: Submission by either player, 5 percent overall, Neutral.
These are possible next events, not guaranteed paths to another named position. Open a transition below for a plain-language explanation.
Every outcome
Transition Breakdown
Favors Top
9%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi6%
No-Gi12%
7%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi8%
No-Gi7%
Favors Bottom
24%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi28%
No-Gi20%
18%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi20%
No-Gi16%
7%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi4%
No-Gi10%
5%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi4%
No-Gi6%
Neutral
5%
Neutral · Overall estimate
Gi5%
No-Gi5%
Compare the formats
Gi vs No-Gi
Gi25%No-Gi24%
Gi6%No-Gi12%
Gi8%No-Gi7%
Gi28%No-Gi20%
Gi20%No-Gi16%
Gi4%No-Gi10%
Gi4%No-Gi6%
Gi5%No-Gi5%
Gi
Grips on the sleeves and collar help the bottom player recover guard and sweep more often.
No-Gi
Without fabric to slow the pass, the top player completes passes slightly more often and the bottom player turtles more.
In practice
What This Means on the Mat
For Top
Half guard is not a failed pass. Flatten the bottom player and free your leg before trying to advance.
For Bottom
Half guard favors you more than most people think. Guard recovery and sweeps together account for most exits.
Methodology
How to Read These Numbers
These percentages are coaching estimates informed by published research, not measured probabilities from a single dataset.
EstimatedThe Simplex Motus Position Transition Roadmap, Volume 1 supplies the baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values. The overall split groups the baseline outcomes by which role they favor. Published studies provide context for the estimates, not direct measurements of these exact exit percentages.
Gi means grappling with a uniform jacket and pants; No-Gi means grappling without that uniform. “Overall” is the roadmap's baseline estimate, not an average calculated from the two formats.
Limitations
The cited studies provide context, but do not report these exact position-exit rates. Without raw counts or a reproducible calculation for the displayed percentages, these estimates should not be treated as measured frequencies or predictions for a particular match.
Research trail
Evidence & Sources
The original roadmap, Volume 1 (PDF) provides the displayed baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values and assigns the references below to Half Guard. Public studies do not track every specific position exit shown here. Where direct measurements are unavailable, the roadmap uses evidence-constrained coaching estimates. No sample size, raw counts, or reproducible calculation for these exact percentages is provided in the document. Treat them as a directional training guide, not observed rates or a prediction for a match.
Continue exploring
Explore the Roadmap
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Half Guard
Explore Related Positions
Related positions are useful positions to explore next and are not necessarily direct transitions shown in the roadmap.
Volume 1
Closed Guard Bottom player has both legs locked around the top player's torso, limiting posture and mobility.Side Control Top player pins across the chest from the side with the legs cleared.Knee on Belly Top player controls from the side with a knee or shin across the torso while staying mobile.Mount Top player sits astride the torso. Mount scores 4 points under IBJJF rules.Turtle Bottom player is on knees and elbows or hands with the back facing the top player.Back Control Top player controls from behind with chest-to-back connection and hooks or equivalent control.
Volume 2
Open Guard Bottom player controls distance with legs and grips without locking closed guard, including DLR, RDLR, spider, lasso, and single-leg X.Butterfly Guard Bottom player is seated with inside hooks under the top player's thighs, usually with upper-body connection.North-South Top player pins from above the head, chest to chest, facing the bottom player's legs. It is part of the side-control family.Standing / Neutral Both athletes are on their feet. There is no top or bottom yet, so the roles are Scorer, Defender, and Neutral.Front Headlock Controller holds the head, often with an arm, while the defender is bent over or turtled. It sits between standing, turtle, and the back.Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami The legs are connected in a control system such as ashi garami, outside ashi, saddle/411, or 50-50. Top and bottom labels do not apply.