Favors Top · Overall estimate
North-South
Top player pins from above the head, chest to chest, facing the bottom player's legs. It is part of the side-control family.
Where does this position usually go next?
- Roadmap
- Volume 2
- Roles
- Top + Bottom
- Formats
- Gi and No-Gi
Understand the position
Understand the position
Top
Lies chest to chest across Bottom, head to head in opposite directions, pinning the upper body.
Bottom
Is flat on their back with Top's chest over their head, working to turn and escape.
Quick Read
Understand this position in 10 seconds.
Favors Top
72%
Top establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Favors Bottom
28%
Bottom establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Largest group: Favors Top (72%). Most common individual transition: Top rotates to side control (28%).
What does "favors" mean?
It is not a player's chance of winning the match. It describes which player benefits from the estimated next outcome of this position.
The distribution
Overall Outcome
Outcome distribution for North-South
Favors Top 72%
Favors Bottom 28%
One-step map
Where It Goes Next
- From North-South: Top rotates to side control, 28 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From North-South: Bottom turtles / exposes back, 16 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From North-South: Top advances to mount, 11 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From North-South: Top submits, 10 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From North-South: Top takes the back, 7 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From North-South: Bottom recovers guard / half guard, 19 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From North-South: Bottom reverses / scrambles up, 9 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
These are possible next events, not guaranteed paths to another named position. Open a transition below for a plain-language explanation.
Every outcome
Transition Breakdown
Favors Top
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Favors Bottom
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Compare the formats
Gi vs No-Gi
Gi
The roadmap estimates more rotation to side control and guard recovery in the Gi.
No-Gi
It estimates more back exposure and back takes in No-Gi.
In practice
What This Means on the Mat
For Top
Stay heavy, attack, or rotate to side control, mount, or the back.
For Bottom
Turn to a side, frame, recover guard, or turtle and move.
Methodology
How to Read These Numbers
These percentages are coaching estimates informed by published research, not measured probabilities from a single dataset.
EstimatedThe Simplex Motus Position Transition Roadmap, Volume 2 supplies the baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values. The overall split groups the baseline outcomes by which role they favor. Published studies provide context for the estimates, not direct measurements of these exact exit percentages.
Gi means grappling with a uniform jacket and pants; No-Gi means grappling without that uniform. “Overall” is the roadmap's baseline estimate, not an average calculated from the two formats.
Limitations
The cited studies provide context, but do not report these exact position-exit rates. Without raw counts or a reproducible calculation for the displayed percentages, these estimates should not be treated as measured frequencies or predictions for a particular match.
Research trail
Evidence & Sources
The original roadmap, Volume 2 (PDF) provides the displayed baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values and assigns the references below to North-South. Public studies do not track every specific position exit shown here. Where direct measurements are unavailable, the roadmap uses evidence-constrained coaching estimates. No sample size, raw counts, or reproducible calculation for these exact percentages is provided in the document. Treat them as a directional training guide, not observed rates or a prediction for a match.
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