12%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi10%
No-Gi14%
Closed Guard
Bottom player has both legs locked around the top player's torso, limiting posture and mobility.
Where does this position usually go next?
- Roadmap
- Volume 1
- Roles
- Top + Bottom
- Formats
- Gi and No-Gi
Understand the position
Understand the position
Top
Kneels inside Bottom's locked legs and usually needs to create posture and open the guard before passing.
Bottom
Lies on their back with both legs locked around Top's torso, controlling posture and distance.
Quick Read
Understand this position in 10 seconds.
Favors Top
17%
Top establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Favors Bottom
26%
Bottom establishes the stronger next position or finishes the exchange.
Neutral
57%
Neither role establishes a clearly superior next position. The exchange can still move forward.
Largest group: Neutral (57%). Most common individual transition: Guard opens → passing battle (48%).
What does "favors" mean?
It is not a player's chance of winning the match. It describes which player benefits from the estimated next outcome of this position.
The distribution
Overall Outcome
Outcome distribution for Closed Guard
Favors Top 17%
Favors Bottom 26%
Neutral 57%
One-step map
Where It Goes Next
Sort by
- From Closed Guard: Top completes the pass, 12 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Closed Guard: Bottom turtles / exposes back, 5 percent overall, Favors Top.
- From Closed Guard: Bottom sweeps to top, 16 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Closed Guard: Bottom takes the back, 5 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Closed Guard: Bottom submits, 5 percent overall, Favors Bottom.
- From Closed Guard: Guard opens → passing battle, 48 percent overall, Neutral.
- From Closed Guard: Top disengages / reset, 9 percent overall, Neutral.
These are possible next events, not guaranteed paths to another named position. Open a transition below for a plain-language explanation.
Every outcome
Transition Breakdown
Favors Top
5%
Favors Top · Overall estimate
Gi5%
No-Gi5%
Favors Bottom
16%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi20%
No-Gi12%
5%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi5%
No-Gi6%
5%
Favors Bottom · Overall estimate
Gi5%
No-Gi6%
Neutral
48%
Neutral · Overall estimate
Gi50%
No-Gi45%
9%
Neutral · Overall estimate
Gi5%
No-Gi12%
Compare the formats
Gi vs No-Gi
Gi10%No-Gi14%
Gi5%No-Gi5%
Gi20%No-Gi12%
Gi5%No-Gi6%
Gi5%No-Gi6%
Gi50%No-Gi45%
Gi5%No-Gi12%
Gi
The roadmap estimates that the bottom player sweeps more often in the Gi, while opening the guard leads to a passing battle most often in either ruleset.
No-Gi
The roadmap estimates that the top player completes the pass and disengages more often in No-Gi, while bottom-player sweeps become less common.
In practice
What This Means on the Mat
For Top
Open the guard safely and begin passing. An open guard usually leads to a passing battle, not an immediate completed pass.
For Bottom
Break posture and look for a sweep, back take, or submission. Sweeps are the most common bottom-favored exit in this roadmap.
Methodology
How to Read These Numbers
These percentages are coaching estimates informed by published research, not measured probabilities from a single dataset.
EstimatedThe Simplex Motus Position Transition Roadmap, Volume 1 supplies the baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values. The overall split groups the baseline outcomes by which role they favor. Published studies provide context for the estimates, not direct measurements of these exact exit percentages.
Gi means grappling with a uniform jacket and pants; No-Gi means grappling without that uniform. “Overall” is the roadmap's baseline estimate, not an average calculated from the two formats.
Limitations
The cited studies provide context, but do not report these exact position-exit rates. Without raw counts or a reproducible calculation for the displayed percentages, these estimates should not be treated as measured frequencies or predictions for a particular match.
Research trail
Evidence & Sources
The original roadmap, Volume 1 (PDF) provides the displayed baseline, Gi, and No-Gi values and assigns the references below to Closed Guard. Public studies do not track every specific position exit shown here. Where direct measurements are unavailable, the roadmap uses evidence-constrained coaching estimates. No sample size, raw counts, or reproducible calculation for these exact percentages is provided in the document. Treat them as a directional training guide, not observed rates or a prediction for a match.
Continue exploring
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Closed Guard
Explore Related Positions
Related positions are useful positions to explore next and are not necessarily direct transitions shown in the roadmap.
Volume 1
Side Control Top player pins across the chest from the side with the legs cleared.Half Guard Bottom player traps one of the top player's legs. It sits between guard and a completed pass.Knee on Belly Top player controls from the side with a knee or shin across the torso while staying mobile.Mount Top player sits astride the torso. Mount scores 4 points under IBJJF rules.Turtle Bottom player is on knees and elbows or hands with the back facing the top player.Back Control Top player controls from behind with chest-to-back connection and hooks or equivalent control.
Volume 2
Open Guard Bottom player controls distance with legs and grips without locking closed guard, including DLR, RDLR, spider, lasso, and single-leg X.Butterfly Guard Bottom player is seated with inside hooks under the top player's thighs, usually with upper-body connection.North-South Top player pins from above the head, chest to chest, facing the bottom player's legs. It is part of the side-control family.Standing / Neutral Both athletes are on their feet. There is no top or bottom yet, so the roles are Scorer, Defender, and Neutral.Front Headlock Controller holds the head, often with an arm, while the defender is bent over or turtled. It sits between standing, turtle, and the back.Leg Entanglement / Ashi Garami The legs are connected in a control system such as ashi garami, outside ashi, saddle/411, or 50-50. Top and bottom labels do not apply.